Democratic State, Republican State, Swing State

                                         2008

South West                   D/R +%                   
Nevada                               D 12
Arizona                              R   9
New Mexico                      D 15
Colorado                            D   8

   Lower Middle West
Iowa                                   D  9
Missouri                             R  1
Indiana                               D  1
Ohio                                   D  4

  Atlantic Coast
New Hampshire                 D  9
Virginia                              D  6
North Carolina                   D  1
Florida                                D  2

  Other
Montana                             R  3
North Dakota                     R  8
South Dakota                     R  8
Georgia                              R  5

Now, most of this presidential campaign has been actively disputed in less than a dozen of the fifty states, and DC. The term used, incredibly often, is 'swing states'. There is some ambiguity in the particular grouping. Above is listed the margin in percentage points which party won in 2008. I wrote about this before. The campaigns, and the press are only considering those states listed above that Obama won, minus Indiana. Earlier i expected all the first twelve to go Democratic in 2012.

There is a bias to make this seem like a close race. In 2008, McCain defeated Romney and lost to Obama. Romney is still the inferior candidate. Obama has been obstructed mightily by an oftentimes demented opposition, and nothing stuck. Obama has had a scandal free first term. One of the few advantages the Republicans have is they own the machines that will 'count' the votes, and have a compliant press.

Screen grab from Yahoo, early a.m. 10.23.12.