Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Projected Presidential Electoral Map 2012

Democratic  379  Barack Obama
Republican  159 Willard Romney
It has been coming into focus. Barack Obama has held a steady lead in the presidential race. The Republican campaign has continued to flail. The disadvantage the Republicans have is they have no one credible; but still they hold well over 40% allegiance. That is truly remarkable. 

There has been much talk about swing states. It is questionable how many swing states there are, and which ones are they. In some perspectives they are the states that voted for Obama in 2008, and the Republicans are covetous of to flip. In some of those scenarios, Indiana is expected to be a 'gimme' for the Republicans and not an effort. The averaged polls suggest all those 'swing states' to not. Missouri was the closest state in 2008. McCain won, and a recount was possible (though not requested). McCain was from Arizona, and still popular there. Arizona is lacking that impetus this time. Continual momentum (and accurate, undenied voting) could 'swing' Arizona, and Missouri to the Democracy.

We know that the Republican party throughout the United States has been achieving a reduction of the one man-one vote principle. New laws, and new gerrymanders, have been created to make a Democratic outcome less likely. How much will that hinder democracy is still to be seen, this time and in the future. This cheat and steal policy in elections is what is so thoroughly disgusting, and therefore, the Republican party cannot be considered a democratic party.

Demographics are pulling away from Republicans.Now their propagandists are poo-pooing polls, yet they take polls and see the same numbers. Of course, they do not want to depress their turnout; and of course they do not want that momentum to accelerate; but also they want a cover for shenanigans.
postscriptum 2 November 2012: In a very short time, election day will be past. The above map needs to be changed. The first Obama-Romney debate remarkably improved Romney's standing. Romney's performance surprised the president, who just shut down. An aggressive, pushy, and thoroughly dishonest presentation by Romney was extra-ordinarily effective. Only now, has Obama recovered. The only other polling factor that might explain a portion of Romney's ascent is a change from 'registered voter' to 'likely voter' model. The above map, for now, would have Indiana, Missouri, and Arizona painted red. North Carolina, and Florida would be the weakest blue. Ohio could be red only through co-ordinated tampering! Ohio's Secretary of State, Jon Husted is thoroughly dishonest. Republicans follow the stalinist razor:  "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

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