Wednesday, January 4, 2012

a presidential political assessment

The current situation, confirmed by yesterday's preliminary round of voting set me to analyse. First, if you are pro-Republican party--do not read this. It will disturb you, and have you hurl invective towards me. [an aside: very few read my essays, some who may enjoy some of these essays in the past, get very upset with my writing on party politics; so, again you may be offended] Now, the Republican party, and its most fervent followers, are not a normal political party. They are both crazy, and fascist. They have passed the point of sanity into madness.

gwbjr was wretched. No Republican mentions his name now [he who must not be named]. Somehow, President Obama succeeded President Clinton without an interval. Well, in legal elections anyhow. The presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 were stolen. Instead, of being remorseful of the absolutely wretched usurpation, the Republicans were incensed that the Democrats won handily in 2008.

President Barack Obama was a Democratic winner, and incidentally not a pure Caucasian. The Republican subversion campaign began immediately. Election day 2010 it was very successful. By January 2011, parts of the country were experiencing 'buyer's remorse'. The malevolent clown car circus, which the Republican party has become, was not phased. They were outdoing each other in crazy.

Romney is the Republican nominee for their party in 2012. This was apparent in 2008. For a time, it was possible to conceive a Palin nomination. After her nomination for Vice-President, and the fanatical reception she enjoyed, that, quickly overshadowed the top half of the ticket (John McCain), it seemed it was a two candidate race. But she decided to be an half term governor, and only on occasion came out to display herself. She was not going to run in 2012, or perhaps ever. Romney clinched. The coronation will not come early.

The Republican party is not a conservative party. Republicans complain that Romney is not 'conservative'. They have changed the meaning. 'Conservative' is now a form of insanity.

I, as a democrat, am not satisfied with Barack Obama. He is what used to be a moderate Republican of the 1950s. The day after he was elected, the teabagger movement began. Those teabaggers old enough had been John Birchers. John Birchers were in this way 'conservative', they thought the moderate Republican president, Dwight David Eisenhower, was a communist.

As we have seen, the Republican contenders for the presidency are: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and several non-Romney 'conservatives'. Jon Huntsman is roughly what a 'conservative' used to be before Reagan. Ron Paul will never be chosen as the Republican nominee for his sane ideas (marijuana legalisation, anti-war beliefs, smaller military and international involvement, and anti-Zionist positions).

So, we have Romney (who will agree to any position verbally, and perhaps otherwise) who wants to be president, and the clown car. Donald Trump, and Herman Cain have already fallen out of the car.

Here are last nights results (unofficial):
Iowa Republican Caucus -- County level
(1st of 4 levels for 25 delegates National Convention)

Name Votes %
Mitt Romney 30,015 24.55%
Rick Santorum 30,007 24.54%
Ron Paul 26,219 21.45%
Newt Gingrich 16,251 13.29%
Rick Perry 12,604 10.31%
Michelle Bachmann 6,073 4.97%
Jon Huntsman 745 0.61%
No preference 135 0.11%
Other 117 0.10%
Herman Cain_______
Buddy Roemer

Romney comes eight (8) votes* ahead of the latest leading non-Romney (Santorum). [I am only slightly surprised, that, a recount was not demanded.] Rick Santorum was the last remaining non-Romney candidate. Ron Paul is a close third. The remaining non-Romneys are big losers, and 'Newtie' is extremely angry. Gingrich may stay in the race just to spite Romney. Obama wins both party caucuses in Iowa. Barack Obama went to sleep last night, after saying, "Thank you, Jesus. Thank you, Jesus. Thank you, Jesus."

After some cogitation, upon the domestic political scene, i am satisfied with some answers, so that, i can propose a two-part question: In November 2020, the Democratic incumbent will have a candidate from what chief anti-Democratic party as the main opponent for the presidency?

In the history of the United States there has always been the Democratic Party of Jefferson, whatever name it has at the time. Almost always there is an anti-Democratic party, sometimes two. There has been the Tories, Federalists, National Republicans, Whigs, Know-Nothings, Republicans.

The tendency over several elections is he who is second for an open Republican nomination in year x, is the nominee in x + 4. The current Republican party and its contenders will lead to:

  • in 2012 Obama defeating Romney, Ron Paul may also lead a ticket but not the Republican;
  • in 2016 the usual Republican nominee formula probably becomes meaningless, because that individual is unelectable;
  • in 2016 Democrat somebody beats Republican somebody;
  • if the Republican party does not split by 2016, it may by 2020 if it has not achieved sanity.
  • in 2020 the Democratic incumbent will face competition from a main anti-Democratic party, which will be named __________ [TBA].
*In 2008 Romney had six (6) more votes @ 30,021 for 25.19% and second place. Perhaps, overall Republican enthusiasm is less than described.
Postscriptum: 19 January 2012. Certified totals, show Santorum in first place. Republican party bosses, do not wish to change Romney's rank, call it a tie.

Rick Santorum – Final total: 29,839
Mitt Romney – Final total: 29,805

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