Arabic revolutions, evolutions?

There has been a change of government in Tunisia and Egypt, and a promised one in Yemen. There is a civil war with international involvement in Libya. Gadafi [choose your spelling] has been a madman immediately recognisable from a great distance for quite some time. He is intractable and recalcitrant, Mubarak knew the gig was over, but not before a bizarre camel and horse charge into the crowds. There is a situation in Syria that is quite bloody, with a violent suppression of crowds by the government. Some syrians may object to hereditary president for life. There has been protests, minor and major, in practically every arab speaking country. Some countries have responded with a shuffling of ministers, and change of laws. Thousands have been killed, the lion's share in Libya. The movement is dynamic and flowing.

Is 2011 to be as 1989 was in eastern europe? There is much difference. The european fall of communism was peaceful. It went from one country to another, each with different periods of incubation. The arab world has had no real democracy since the fall of colonialism and empire. These spontaneous revolts began in mid-December after Mohamed Bouazizi, a young tunisian street vendor, set fire to himself to protest police corruption and brutality.

The ruling class in these countries are non-democratic, corrupt and inordinately wealthy. Power, money and corruption are part of the same soup and the populace is dissatisfied and angered that prospects were worse than better.

Of course, this is a fraction of the gore that was Iraq because of gwbjr, cheney et alia. Iraq if it had not changed in the interim, would be in this current turmoil, but without the hundred(s) of thousands dead, and the US would have been a better place with fewer problems.

Two other area questions are Iran and Israel/Palestine. Iran has stifled revolt over the last few years. It has a population only smaller than Egypt's, and is always interested in its neighbor Iraq. Iran could be a first world country. Israel is happy with itself, paranoid and aggressive towards everyone and is continually annexing Palestinian land.

Historically, this is a time of dramatic change in north Africa and southwest Asia. The first few chapters have been written. The others are still unformed in the inkwell.