1860I doubt if anyone clicks and reads this journal for my understanding of American electoral politics. Still, i find it interesting.
The election for the presidency will be: the incumbent Democratic President, Barack Obama, and the Republican, Willard Romney. It is possible Ronald Paul may run as either as the Libertarian candidate, or as an independent.
As some people know, the presidency is won by the greater electoral vote count of the states; that is how a minority vote getter, gwbjr, by having Florida fixed, 'won' over the candidate, whom, received a higher tally. So, one may start the contest with the electoral vote map of 2008. How many states will flip? Also, because of the 2010 census, some states will have a different allotment. In 2008, Obama received 9½ million more votes than McCain, and won 28 states, and the District of Columbia. Officially the vote was 365 to 173.
There are fifty states, but 51 delegations that cast electoral votes. The District of Columbia is the extra. Overtime, some states are reliably Democratic, or reliably anti-Democratic. Since 1856, the chief such party has been the Republican. In 1912 the Progressive party had 88 electoral votes to the Republicans 8.
For a time, the phrase the 'Solid South' stuck. Every possible configuration of 'southern states' did vote in all four elections for Franklin Roosevelt.
But Roosevelt had weakened Jim Crow racial discrimination. President Harry Truman on 5 December 1946 created The President's Committee on Civil Rights. At the Democratic National Convention in 1948 civil rights became part of the party. Thirty-five southerners left the convention. They went on to form the States' Rights Democratic Party with Strom Thurmond of South Carolina as their leader and candidate.
From the 'Dixiecrat' platform:
We stand for the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race; the constitutional right to choose one's associates; to accept private employment without governmental interference, and to learn one's living in any lawful way. We oppose the elimination of segregation, the repeal of miscegenation statutes, the control of private employment by Federal bureaucrats called for by the misnamed civil rights program. We favor home-rule, local self-government and a minimum interference with individual rights.
1964 infraIn 1964 Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act. His Republican opponent, Barry Goldwater of Arizona, was against that. Senator James Strom Thurmond then became a Republican. The Solid South was changing.
Now, the District of Columbia is 60% black. D.C. reliably votes Democratic. Barack Obama won 96% of the black vote in 2008.
The five states with the highest black population (2000 Census):
This belt of states voted Republican in 2008. Obama started with this base in these states, and lost them all. Barack Obama won the presidency, and the teabag movement began the next day.
- Mississippi .......... 36.0 %
- Louisiana ............ 32.4 %
- Alabama .............. 29.2 %
- South Carolina..... 28.9 %
- Georgia ................ 27.5 %
The more African-Americans in a state, the less likely a white American will vote for Obama, or a Democrat. The Confederate South left the country when a Republican won the presidency [over states' rights to slavery]. The South left the Democratic party over civil rights for the descendents of slavery.
Romney will be the Republican. There are three states with more than noticeable Mormon populations (Utah c. 60%, Ida. c. 20%, Wyo. c. 10%). The last time these states voted Democratic was in 1964, all since then they have voted Republican.
Mormons are not trinitarian Christians, while they are Protestants, and restorationists, strictly it is incorrect to consider Mormonism Christian. Several southern states are amongst also the most Protestant Christian states (1.Miss., 2. Ala.). Would enough white Protestants stay home, or vote for Obama in these states to matter?
The teabaggers were an engine for the success of the Republican landslide of 2010. Within months the country was sorry. The remaining energy of teabaggery is for Newton Gingrich. The Republican establishment realises the defeat he would bring for them.
Romney just does not excite enough Republicans. The charisma is absent. Though he is handsome, exceedingly rich, without sexual scandal, he is not convincingly rabid in what his party calls 'conservatism' to be their great standard bearer.
What's left for the Republicans to obtain the presidency? They must manufacture enough disgust with Barack Obama. Beyond the Republican 'base' this is difficult. Neither incompetence, nor scandal can be believed by non-partisan America to be applicable to this presidency.
The Occupy Movement is reminding America, that, the super rich control the country. They are also reminding Obama of that. While that movement is also dissatisfied with the Democrats, it is the Republicans whom hate them. Whilst much of the country is not enamored with the Occupiers, they know that they have points of grievance that are accurate.
The country knows the economy has not been well. If economic justice is considered, the Republicans lose. Republicans hope to lay all the blame for a bad economy on Obama, who inherited the mess. Will enough voters in a few states change blue to red?